The relative underperformance of US Micro and Small Cap stocks compared to S&P 500 and US Large Cap Growth stocks challenges the traditional “higher risk, higher return” principle.
Risk and returns are the twin pillars that underpin investment decisions. By analyzing the historical performance data, this article aims to uncover the performance within the US Equity asset classes – Micro Cap, Small Cap Value, and Large Cap Growth – providing insights into their risk-return profiles.
According to the Center for Research in Security Prices (CRSP), a $1,000 investment made in 1927 generated substantial returns in the US Equity asset classes: $51.32 Million from US Micro Cap Stocks, $29.48 Million from US Small Cap Stocks, and $10.09 Million from US Large Cap Stocks. On the safer side, investments in Government Bonds yielded $49,985, while Treasury Bills provided $29,989 in returns.
Throughout history, US Micro Cap and Small Cap Value asset classes have exhibited remarkable growth characterized by significant volatility. In contrast, the US Large Cap Growth has offered investors lower volatility but correspondingly lower returns, in line with the well-established principle that higher risk corresponds to higher returns.
However, over recent years, US Large Cap Growth stocks and the S&P 500 have outperformed the US Micro and Small Cap Value stocks, thereby challenging the long-standing conventional wisdom of “high risk, high return.” Understanding these performance dynamics is crucial for investors seeking to align their investment strategies with their financial objectives and risk appetite.
This article will dive deeper into each asset class, dissecting their performance and ultimately analyzing the future outlook and trends for effective asset allocation and portfolio management in a constantly evolving and disruptive investment landscape.
US Micro Cap
US Micro Cap stocks offer a dynamic and rewarding arena for investors willing to embrace the volatility and uncertainty that come with smaller, high-growth companies. US Micro Cap, often referred to as “smaller small caps,” are companies with market capitalizations of less than $250 Million.
Micro Cap stocks are characterized by their potential for rapid growth, often in the early development stages. These companies are often seen as the frontier of innovation, where entrepreneurial spirit and agility can translate into substantial returns.
Investing in US Micro Cap stocks comes with a unique set of risks and rewards. Investors in this asset class should be prepared for the roller-coaster ride that can accompany these smaller companies’ stock prices. Historically, the returns are the highest among all equity asset classes, but the risks are equally significant.
Portfolio diversification and a long-term investment horizon will mitigate the risks, allowing investors to harness the growth potential while managing the inherent uncertainties. Some investors adopt a growth-oriented strategy, seeking the potential for exponential expansion. Others may focus on value investing within the Micro Cap space, looking for undervalued gems.
Regardless of the chosen approach, due diligence and a well-defined exit strategy are essential. Investors should consider their risk tolerance and the impact of Micro Cap stocks within their overall portfolio. By balancing the risk-return profile and aligning portfolio strategies with the investment goals, investors can confidently explore the exciting world of US Micro Cap stocks.
US Small Cap Value
The US Small Cap Value asset class represents a subset of the equity market that focuses on companies with market capitalizations ranging from $250 Million to $2 Billion that are considered undervalued relative to their fundamentals.
These companies are often characterized by lower price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios, lower price-to-book (P/B) ratios, and higher dividend yields than their growth-oriented stocks. These companies are typically more mature than Micro Cap stocks but have yet to reach the scale of Large Cap counterparts.
Investing in US Small Cap Value stocks offers a unique blend of risk and reward. Small Cap Value stocks are less popular among investors, leading to lower market visibility. But, they are often seen as having the potential for substantial growth once the market recognizes their true value.
The potential returns lie in the opportunity to acquire undervalued assets that can appreciate significantly once recognized by the market. However, Small Cap Value stocks can be sensitive to economic downturns and market fluctuations. They may also face liquidity challenges, as their shares are less actively traded than larger companies.
Investment strategies in the US Small Cap Value asset class often revolve around value investing principles. Investors seek out companies with strong fundamentals that the market has overlooked or undervalued. Due diligence in analyzing financial statements, cash flow, and other key metrics is essential.
Diversification across a range of Small Cap Value stocks can help mitigate risks associated with individual companies. Additionally, a long-term perspective is often advantageous, as the true value of these stocks may take time to be recognized by the broader market. Small Cap Value stocks can balance the risk-return profile to a well-diversified portfolio.
US Large Cap Growth
The US Large Cap Growth asset class represents a segment of the equity market that focuses on established, often industry-leading companies with a history of consistent revenue and earnings growth. These companies are typically characterized by market capitalizations exceeding $10 Billion, strong competitive positions, and a focus on innovation and expansion.
Large Cap Growth stocks tend to have higher price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios than value-oriented counterparts, reflecting investor optimism about their future prospects. They are often considered core holdings in investment portfolios due to their potential for steady performance and relative stability, making them a cornerstone of many diversified investment strategies.
Historically, US Large Cap Growth stocks have delivered solid long-term performance, capitalizing on their ability to generate consistent earnings growth. While their growth rates may not match the explosive returns of smaller companies during bull markets, they have demonstrated resilience during market downturns.
Investing in US Large Cap Growth stocks offers a balanced mix of risk and rewards. The returns stem from the potential for capital appreciation driven by the companies’ continued growth and innovation. However, they are not immune to market volatility, and their higher valuations can make them more susceptible to corrections.
Investors should be mindful of valuation risks and consider the potential for periods of underperformance. Balancing Large Cap Growth stocks with other asset classes can help mitigate risk and align investments with specific financial goals.
Performance Analysis
A comprehensive comparative analysis of asset classes is crucial for investors seeking to make informed decisions about their portfolio allocations. This analysis evaluates several key factors to understand how different asset classes perform and interact with the broader investment universe.
30 Years Performance (1993-2023)
Among the various asset classes, US Large Cap Growth stands out with an annual return (CAGR) of 10.75%, coupled with the lowest standard deviation, a measure of risk, at 16.64%. This implies that an initial $100,000 investment in 1993 has grown to $2.06 Million by 2023 with annual rebalancing.
Nevertheless, it’s noteworthy that US Micro Cap consistently outperformed Large Cap Growth with higher volatility for nearly 30 years, reaching its peak performance at $2.7 Million in 2021. In addition, Micro Cap and Small Cap Value outperformed Large Cap Growth and S&P 500 for 11 years between 2001-2022.
20 Years Performance (2003-2023)
The performance over the past two decades underscores US Large Cap Growth as the consistent champion, boasting an 11.28% annual return (CAGR), the lowest standard deviation at 16%, minimal drawdown, and the highest Sharpe Ratio, outperforming US Micro Cap and Small Cap Value asset classes.
The conventional principle of “higher risk, higher return” no longer holds true after the 2019 pandemic, as large tech companies reaped significant benefits from the surge in demand for digital products and services to facilitate remote work. Both the US Micro Cap and Small Cap Growth asset classes experienced recoveries following the implementation of quantitative easing policies.
Nonetheless, after implementing quantitative tightening measures to address inflation, the performance of both the US Micro Cap and Small Cap Growth asset classes experienced a downturn. In contrast, US Large Cap Growth stocks rebounded, driven by the explosive growth of generative Artificial Intelligence (AI).
10 Years Performance (2013-2023)
Over the past decade, the S&P 500 and US Large Cap Growth stocks have consistently outperformed US Micro and Small Cap asset classes while exhibiting lower standard deviation (indicative of lower risks). This trend challenges the traditional notion of “higher risk, higher return.”
Several factors contribute to this shift in performance dynamics:
Access to Resources: Large Cap Growth companies, particularly in the technology sector, have displayed exceptional resilience and adaptability in the face of rapidly changing market conditions. They have capitalized on digital transformation and innovation, leading to robust revenue and earnings growth. In contrast, Micro and Small Cap companies, often lacking the resources and scale of their larger peers, have struggled to keep pace with the disruptive forces reshaping industries.
Market Sentiment: Large Cap Growth stocks have gained favor among investors due to their perceived safety and stability. In an era of low interest rates and increased market volatility, investors have sought refuge in these established companies, drawn by their ability to weather economic uncertainties. This investor sentiment has further bolstered the performance of Large Cap Growth stocks.
Global Diversification: Large Cap Growth companies’ global reach and diversification have insulated them from regional economic downturns. They have effectively navigated international markets, reducing their vulnerability to localized economic shocks. On the other hand, Micro and Small Cap companies, often more regionally focused, may lack the same level of diversification.
Scalability: The scalability of Large Cap companies allows them to operate efficiently and benefit from economies of scale. This efficiency contributes to their profitability and resilience during challenging economic environments. Smaller companies may struggle to achieve the same scalability and cost-efficiency level, impacting their bottom line.
Market and Technology Dominance: Large Cap Growth stocks have positioned themselves as leaders in technology and innovation-driven sectors such as cloud computing, e-commerce, and artificial intelligence. Their dominance in these areas has allowed them to maintain pricing power and competitive advantages, contributing to their superior performance.
Future Outlook and Trends
The relative underperformance of US Micro and Small Cap stocks compared to S&P 500 and US Large Cap Growth stocks challenges the traditional “higher risk, higher return” principle. This shift in performance dynamics underscores the evolving nature of financial markets and presents investors with unique challenges and opportunities.
As the investment landscape evolves, investors are challenged to reevaluate their strategies and consider a broader range of factors beyond traditional risk-return paradigms. Understanding the dynamics at play between different asset classes and recognizing the unique strengths and limitations of each can empower investors to make informed decisions in pursuit of their financial goals.
Ultimately, the shifting performance dynamics remind us that adaptability and a willingness to rethink long-standing principles are essential qualities for success in the ever-changing investing world.
